INVESTRA - Macro Context

Editorial context, not model output. Rates, inflation, growth and system health come from the INVESTRA workbook's MACRO sheet (RBI MPC / Bulletin, RBI Financial Stability Report June 2026, IMF); the "INVESTRA" columns are medians of the 50 companies. Descriptive - not a forecast or a recommendation. Nothing here feeds the ASTRA scores.

Repo rate

10-year G-sec yield

CPI inflation

GDP growth · FY27

Bank credit growth

Deposit growth

01Rates - the price of money-

Rate ladder

where each rate sits, 0-8%

Policy cycle

Cycle--

Repo rate since 2019

RBI policy repo rate after each change · easing cycles shaded teal, tightening cycles coral, holds unshaded

All changes

Date	Move	Repo after	Meeting	Note

Sources: RBI monetary policy statements as compiled by the cited pages; each row links its source.

Inflation path

CPI, year on year · the RBI targets 4% inside a 2-6% band

Next policy decision

RBI MPC calendar

02Credit and fundingis the system lending faster than it is raising deposits?

Credit vs deposit growth

year-on-year, scheduled commercial banks

Funding cost vs the repo rate

median cost of funds by segment · the 50 INVESTRA names

Who feels a rate move first

first-order effect of a 25 bp repo move · medians of the 50 INVESTRA names · editorial, not a forecast

03System health-

Scorecard - the system vs the INVESTRA universe

system = RBI FSR · universe = median of the 50 names, latest reported quarter

04Stress test - what if the economy turns?-

05Structural runwayhow much room credit still has to grow

Credit-to-GDP - how deep lending already is

private non-financial credit, % of GDP · [IMF / BIS]

What it means: all the loans that banks and other lenders have made to households and companies, measured against the size of the economy (one year's GDP). A lower number means borrowing is still shallow - so lending can keep growing faster than the economy for years. That gap is the "runway".

Signals from the primary sources

latest public prints · Jun-Sep 2026 · each traced to a named document

Policy announcements and reports in the order they were released (newest first) - context only, they do not feed the model.

RBI · MPC On 7 October 2026 the RBI raised the repo rate 25 bp to 5.50% (unanimous) - its first hike since February 2023 - and changed the stance from neutral to calibrated tightening (4-2 vote). SDF 5.25%, MSF and Bank Rate 5.75%. FY27 projections: real GDP 7.1%, CPI 5.2% (peaking near 6.0% in Q3). The next meeting runs 2-4 December 2026. RBI Monetary Policy Statement, 7-Oct-2026 (as reported by corplawupdates.in and Upstox) · INVESTRA MACRO sheet

Markets The 10-year G-sec rose to about 7.18% on 28 September 2026, its highest in nearly two years, as US yields climbed and markets began pricing a possible RBI hike at the October meeting. Trading Economics, India 10-year bond yield note, 28-Sep-2026

MoSPI · CPI Retail inflation rose for a fourth month to 4.82% in August 2026 (May 3.93%, June 4.38%, July 4.45%), led by food at 5.95%; rural 5.23%, urban 4.31%. MoSPI, CPI (base 2024) release, 14-Sep-2026 (as reported by Business Today)

RBI · MPC The October meeting ran 5-7 October 2026 with the decision on 7 October; the next is 2-4 December 2026. RBI MPC calendar, FY2026-27

RBI · MPC Repo rate kept at 5.25%, stance neutral; the FY27 real GDP growth projection revised to 6.7%. RBI, Monetary Policy Statement, August 2026 (INVESTRA MACRO sheet)

RBI · MPC Repo rate held at 5.25% with a neutral stance - the monetary policy committee voted unanimously to stay on hold - the last cut, to 5.25%, came in December 2025 (February and April 2026 also held). RBI, Monetary Policy Statement, June 5, 2026

RBI · MPC FY27 projections revised: real GDP growth trimmed to 6.6% and average CPI inflation raised to 5.1%, citing higher energy prices and supply disruptions. RBI, Monetary Policy Statement, June 2026

RBI · FSR Gross bad loans of scheduled commercial banks fell to 1.8% of advances as of March 31, 2026 - a multi-decadal low - and the baseline stress path sees only a modest rise to 1.9% by March 2028. RBI, Financial Stability Report, June 2026

RBI · Credit Non-food bank credit grew 15.8% year-on-year in the fortnight ended April 30, 2026 (vs 9.8% a year earlier), with services credit leading at 18.6%. RBI, Data on Sectoral Deployment of Bank Credit, April 2026 release

IMF · WEO India's real GDP growth for FY2026-27 was nudged up to 6.5% - still the fastest-growing major economy - even as global growth for 2026 was cut to 3.1%. IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2026

Sector context

structural notes · grounding for the model, not advice · [RBI / research, Apr-2026]

Sources

every figure on this page traces to a named document